So the Election Prediction Mafia , meaning 538, Axios, RealClearPolitics and the like will have you believe that ‘Big Man’ Biden is up in the national polls. They will have you believe that Biden is leading by 8.1 points in Michigan based on ‘opinion polls’.
Let us now put that theory to the test using real up to date data courtesy of NBC. Links will be provided. Spoiler alert – Election Prediction mafia is more wrong in 2020 than they were in 2016.
Let us first get something out of the way. If the objective of the election polls mafia was to get as much money out as possible from the media or the parties sponsoring the research, then I think they have done a good job. We could treat them as an entertainment genre or a class of narcotics for those with Trump Derangement Syndrome.
What the Swamp People say
The Election Prediction Mafia give Big Man Biden an almost 90% chance of winning based on those polls. The issue which we will explore is that these opinion polls do not corroborate with early vote totals or of other observable factors. For example, how can you explain the fact that the Democrat strategy of taking an early lead in the early vote has been thrown out of the window? It is just not happening and in fact Democrat early vote numbers are far below their original target and say what everybody knows – Big Man Biden cannot bring out the Dem vote.
Alas ! Like the twisted story arcs which typify their favourite Netflix miniseries, the charade is finally coming to an end. The piper is coming to town and it sounds like a Contempt Theme De Camille, the last theme song from Casino when everything gets blown up.
As we did in 2016 we called this election for the President, but whereas last time we waited till the last day, we did it this time as early as August this year. 59 million people have voted and it is this vote that determines the Presidency, not some make believe fairy tale opinion poll.
Actually, as pollsters and the media start to freak out given that polls are indicating that the President will win, we would like to share the secret of our call.
- Ignore the media
- Opinion polls are for the weak minded
- Follow the actual data
- Correlate with indicators
1. Ignore the Media
The media communicates to the public through sentences, each of which expresses a complete idea. No so long as you are willing to see past the brands the media companies have built over the last 100 years or so, you will see it as an organization whose ideas do not reflect the reality on the ground but rather their bias.
2. Opinion polls are for the weak minded
The entire premise of an opinion poll is that it is able to gauge opinion. This is ridiculous because the media spent all their credibility painting supporters of the President as racist or evil. People take risks in answering the opinion polls which could lead them to be marked out for termination by unscrupulous far left HR staff or other forms of attack by the left. There is no requirement for Trump supporters to register their opinion so they either do not respond or respond falsely. Come on man, certain pollsters had Biden winning with FDR like margins – the same Biden who is obviously too old and frail for the job and cannot fill a parking lot with supporters.
We also have the benefit of spotting fraudsters from a mile, and the antics of some pollsters who were trumpeting polls given Biden a +17 lead shows the fraudulent nature of the organizations which receive most of the attention. They take the fraudulent nature to another high by ‘liking’ pollsters who share their warped views, giving them A+ or A- ratings when in essence they are one and the same. The sad thing is that they impinge on the work carried out by reputable pollsters like Trafalgar Group or the Democracy Institute, who actually have a track record.
3. Media companies claim they do data journalism but don’t follow the data
If a media company could get 2020 wrong by Friday 30th October, they do not practice data journalism. The biggest sample was evident by just tracking the areas where Democrats had won convincingly in 2016 and you can see that they were struggling BIGLY.
4. Correlate with indicators
So the media companies were telling Americans to take it on good faith that their pollsters were predicting a Biden landslide when Americans could see with their own eyes the President packing crowds all across the country.
They could see Trump parades in the bastion of Wokism – Beverly Hills, San Diego and New York, featuring boats, cars, trucks and even a guy dressed in a Pharoh costume , and yet the media companies were so tethered to the poll numbers that they failed to do the basic job of journalism: Question the validity of a number spat out by “THE MODEL” which no one can rationalize or relate to.
“O magic opinion polls,
will we be right this time?”
I guess media companies are weak in Maths and get scared when a guy looking like he knows Maths spits out a number. They cower in fear – Behold the Polling Number says… and those who do not accept it are Luddites and non-science believing folks. Or Trump supporters.
This is currently the most likely outcome for the Presidential Election. We are one of the few to predict that Trump will carry Virginia.
Look away now if you suffer from Trump Derangement Syndrome as we go through state by state, starting with Michigan.
73% of the Election is done in Florida, by 2016 electoral projections.
The stunner is this:
This is Miami-Dade county, a county HRC carried by 30 percentage points in 2016 (64 – 34). Right now, the Republicans have narrowed the gap to 24 percentage points, and this is still based on early voting when Democrats are supposed to have decimated the Republican parties. If we assume that the remainder vote is going to skew heavily to Republican, which is a valid assumption as most models are in agreement that Republicans tend to vote in person and on election day this race should be over by the weekend.
In Nevada, if you look at a pure headline number, which is the number of Democrat votes – Republican votes so far, it would read 345,150 Dems and 295,490 Republicans for a net Democrat for a net Democrat +50,000 (HRC won this by 26,000). If you adjust for the location factor, namely seeing whether a location is turning more Democratic vs Republican, the Democrats are doing better and the advantage will be +23,000 as compared to 2016.
Red means republican advantage, blue means Democrat advantage
But we are quantitative folks so of course we are going to a bit more digging.
Firstly, this early vote number is purely a function of the Democrat base turning out their counties earlier than Republicans. The correlation between Democrat total vote share in 2016 and the percentage of early voting is .66. So the fact that Dems are running +23,000 higher than their 2016 benchmark (so in essence +50,000) is purely a tactical function. Dems are turning out their vote base early. Dems have already turned out Clark county, the total vote registered so far is 80% of 2016 total vote. There is no more vote left. On the other hand the GOP counties have a 15% vote reserve left, they are at 65% of total 2016 votes.
If the remaining vote turns 60% : 40% in favour of the Republicans, then Nevada can be won by the GOP
[Updated 30th Oct: Early Voting Blog says that Democrat incumbent Susie Lee may be in trouble. Democrat ad-van-tage [like in Tennis] is 45K votes. Nevada is a stretch for the President to win , it will come down to whether Republicans can beat Dems on Election day by 3:2 , which is do-able]
There is something very interesting brewing in Virginia. We will cover it before election day. Democrat turnout in Fairfax, Loudon and Prince William has been slashed massively.
So the Election Mafia would have you believe that Biden was up by 8 points in Michigan. Complete and utter rubbish based on early voting of over 2 million votes. Margin in Oakland, Kent and Washtenaw has been slashed massively. These are the areas that Dems need to win to win over the state.
And reality starts to sink in..
The Democrat social media folk over here have been awfully quiet. No updates of votes. No news. Just the odd remark about how Biden is failing to energize the crowd.
The only people doing the campaigning are the media folks – and they are getting more demented day by day. In our “How to spot a liar from a mile” theory, people tend to lie more when they push narratives without supporting numbers or using 1 dimensional numbers, i.e. numbers which are narrow in scope and/or sourced from 1 source.
Over here, in our discussion, we rely on multiple sources – sometimes target smart, sometimes the actual total vote. Either way our sample is always much higher than the “opinion polls” people are bandying about and more importantly, our sample is drawn from the only sample which will determine the election.
And lastly, we are ok philosophically if we are wrong. If Dems were going to obliterate Trump, we would have gotten over it by mid October. But every time we checked the sanity of our earlier prediction of a massive Trump victory, the correlated indicators seemed to point in that direction – and so we are still promoting this theory, but now backed with a plethora of facts, not opinion.
In early voting, the period where the Democrats were supposed to smash the Republicans, we instead have the Republicans taking a 2 point lead over the Democrats.
TIKTOK Vote stays on Smart Phones
The TIKTOK vote is not materializing this year. See below.
Other folk see what we see – its no longer a secret and the Mainstream media will have to stop peddling their lies. (Difference is we had a predicted a Trump victory early on and doubled down on a Trump landslide over here )
The reason as we have consistently pointed out is the collapse of the TIKTOK voting segment – the youth. The segment has only returned 8% of the vote and this segment can carry a double weight in opinion polls. This segment also skewed heavily Democratic so just by re-adjusting the turnout to mirror the actual turnout could shave several points of this make believe opinion polls. And opinion polls also suffer from another weakness – Trump supporters generally are the Silent Terminator type, means they will keep quiet and do their talking at the polls.
In Arizona, the Dems can laugh and dance for joy as they have +4 advantage in early voting.
D+4 ? Did you just say D+4 ? D+4 ?!!
Dems are expected to be D+20 in early voting because those voting on election day are going for the President on margins of 5 to 2. If the lead going into election day is so narrow, the Dems are toast. One survey had put the ratio of voters in California who plan to vote on election day as high as 7 to 1 for the President.
Wisconsin is also another prime example of the fictional nature of these “opinion polls.” The Election mafia has Biden by 5.4 points in Wisconsin. Complete and utter rubbish based on 1.3 million votes.
Source: NBC as compiled by Target Smart. Look here.
Pennsylvania seems to offer the Democrats more hope based on the early voting.
According to Early Voting, the Democrats have built up a super big +50 point lead.
But wait a minute – the truth is apparent if you actually adjust for location.
Most of the Democrat turnout is concentrated in 4 counties : Philadelphia, Delaware, Montgomery, Allegheny and Chester. Collectively, these 4 counties gave Hilary Clinton 1.5 million votes, but so far, only 830,000 votes (both Democrat and Republican) have been returned as of 27th October based on US Election project. In fact, we ran a correlation and the correlation coefficient came out at .78 between the percentage of democratic vote and the early vote percentage. What this says is that 60% of the variation in the early vote in PA by county is just because Democratic counties are voting earlier. (Sounds intuitive but now we have statistical evidence to back it up – from real data not make believe opinion polls. This also implies that the full fury of the GOP counties have not been unleased on the 2020 Presidential polls )
Exhibit – Current Dem Vote Gap as of 28th Oct 2020
The above table shows the number of Democrat votes yet to be returned in the Big 5 counties in Pennsylvania, hence the need for the Dems to try to extend the voting as long as possible. What it states that currently 870,000 votes are still outstanding from these locations in order to just match the 2016 Democrat turnout. This amounts to almost 50% of the total vote of 1.6 million received from these counties. As it stands, all the President needs to do is just retain his total vote and the Dems are wiped out in PA.
Interestingly this gap portends something much deeper. The rate of return for Dem votes in PA are significantly lower than other major Dem areas, perhaps it is the electorate’s way of signaling their loss of patience with Antifa , which coincidentally rocked Philadelphia over the summer.
Vote Gap: Total Votes in Dem 2016 – Total Dem Votes received, expressed as a percentage of 2016 Dem Votes. (2020 Party affiliation based on TargetSmart)
What this means is simple: With only 1 week to go, the Democrats are trailing massively behind their 2016 overall total vote base. Most models predict Democrat turnout on election day to be at 35%, meaning early voting should account for 65% of total vote, just to break even
. But just an inspection of the Big 4 Democrat counties shows that Democrats are currently trailing by at least 55% of its total 2016 Electoral vote under the most optimistic scenario. With 1 week to the election, Dems should have got at least 60% of the vote in the bag, with the remaining 10% over the last week and perhaps 30% on Election day.
NOTHING CAN BE FURTHER FROM THE TRUTH –
DEMOCRATS ARE RUNNING WAY, WAY BEHIND THEIR PROJECTIONS.
THERE IS AT LEAST A 15% GAP IN DEMOCRAT VOTES BETWEEN EXPECTED AND ACTUAL JUST TO MATCH 2016 VOTE TOTALS.
Most folks don’t know this because they only look at headline numbers. We went through county by county to arrive at this figure. Its a disaster in PA – Dems can kiss the seat goodbye.
PA Early Vote is tapering off. There is no “energy” left in the Dems Early Vote (Source: here)
How bad can this turn out for the Democrats
Make no mistake about this – this is a disaster for the Democrats. All throughout the country, whether its Arizona, Florida, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Texas – all over the country the Democrats are lagging way behind their strategy of taking a commanding lead into election day. This can only mean one thing that the media refuses to acknowledge – the everyday voter is sick to the stomach with the Democrat party, and who will blame them if the Democrat party stands for Antifa and violence? There is also new evidence of a massive collapse in the African American vote, in part due to 3 factors – 1) Trump did well on the economy before Covid and many African American voters had benefitted form the strong economy , 2) too much evidence that African American voters are not at all interested in the Kamala Harris – Biden ticket. [Too many videos showing African American voter apathy on Harris (across the US), too many polls showing growing support for Trump, too many cases of African Americans appearing in Trump rallies to justify anything else than a fracturing of the AA base. ]
The early polls point to one thing that should send shivers down the Democrats – a lot of Democrat voters are just staying at home and not coming out to vote. Many have argued that #CrowdDontMatter , we think this is pure garbage.
Name us one election where, on display were sharply contrasting turnouts, and point to me the instance when candidate with the lower turnout won! It happened for Obama in ’08, in Trump in ’16 (Billlary had crowds as well) and in the Malaysian General Election in ’18.
Crowd turnouts can be a leading indicator of both support and of impending doom. If your own crowds don’t turn out, this can meet that your base is repulsed with you. It is as simple as that and the weights of evidence on this conclusion should increase if data supports this hypothesis, which we now show to be a likely scenario.
The question to us is not whether Trump will win,
it is whether he will win California
on a substantially reduced Democratic turnout.
While NBC is part of the liberal media anti-Trump bias, their level of Disinformation did not extend to shutting down their site which provides excellent real-time analytics of how the election is progressing. And kudos to them, the site is very well designed with a nice user interface.
The results of the election is no longer in doubt. The President is going to win – BIGLY.
The reason has a lot to do with the central idea we mentioned in our seminal piece : Can Ancient Chinese tactician save the Trump Presidency?
Basically the President positioned this election not in terms of voting for him but voting against the 5 Evils of the Democrat party in order: Antifa, Far Left , Biased Media, BigTech and China. The Hunter Biden emails also may have had an effect and the obvious failings of Joe Biden as a candidate.
If you had ever paid attention to Sun Tzu, you would have learnt of the adage “The Enemy of my enemy is my friend.”
To us , the question that Democrats should ask is how did they allow the Mad Woke People to take over their party? My guess is that the WokePeople perhaps had the financial backing of one of the richest woman in the world and the Democrats kowtow to money.
The #WokePeople decided to shove their brand of Wokism down the throats of the American public, who were already reeling from the Coronavirus. There were so many early warning signs that the Democrats strategy of surrounding themselves wit the cult of celebrity only extended to influencing the TIKTOK segment (who promptly decided to stay at home). The rest of America was livid at this, cue the worst ratings for an NBA Playoff Final in a generation.
Another moving part was this relentless attack on faith, once again perpetrated by the WokePeople in the Democrat party. While they may be able to bully people in a corporate environment, which is technically ruled as a dictatorship, the question was whether this attack on faith was going to work in a larger setting of a General Election?
A cursory examination of the 2016 – The Vote By Faith segment would have revealed how risky this proposition was going to be. The Dems risked alienating massive segments of the American public, including segments which had backed Billary in 2016.
- 39% Protestant / Other Christian supported Billary
- 45% of Catholics supported Billary
- 71% of Jewish folks supported Billary
These 3 voting segments are repulsed with the Wokism of this new age Democrats. You can kiss their vote goodbye and it is clear by the early election returns that Democrats are on a massive burning platform for trying to shove their wokism on the larger American public.
These new age WokePeople Democrats may have done more damage to the party over the past 36 months since they stormed into power (perhaps some rich lady funded them) in this election cycle than has ever been done to a major American political party over the last 100 years.
Polls were abused by unscrupulous pollsters peddling fake news
Once the dust settles in a weeks time, the far left and Trump haters will have had to go from excitement to horror. Part of this was fueled by the Election Mafia, who in their pursuit of fame put aside good common sense to temper their ridiculous projections with reality. We see today what happened to rating agencies in 2007 – their quest for money resulted in the most ridiculous of Credit ratings.
The only people they hurt are those who put their faith in these polls, which kind of reminds me of the Kevin The Sea Cucumber supporters who were left abandoned by their hero in a ditch somewhere near Shell City.
Will they ever learn?
*My hypothesis is that the Democrats and their polling friends learnt how to skew results to get money from their donors. Dems could be overly reliant trusting on “THE MODEL” as they were in 2016 – as the model spits a number nobody can justify, reason or relate to.
Comments on comments
A reader accused us of some things, one of which broke the strict no blasphemy rule we have on this site which was removed, the other which was we are using bad data.
We will address the second part of the comment
We have used an updated MI 2020 as of 29th October 2020. MI early vote shows D+4. (earlier the site was sort of down)
D+4 is nothing on election day, and does not negate the hypotheses of a massive Republican win.
So we cannot understand which data point the commentator is referring when he suggests that we are using bad data?
The threshold for us is breached not when we have a single data point , but when multiple data points pointing to a Trump victory but the media still goes on and on about “How Biden is leading in the polls.”
Its a lie about data – and we hate lies based on data. And we hate Antifa.
We would have been perfectly ok to drop the entire subject of US elections and admit we were wrong in calling this election for Trump in August if we saw evidence that could even remotely support the Media’s / Polling Agency view point that Trump is far behind in the polls. Instead the following are too many examples of data points pointing to a Trump victory for us to backdown on our opinion. Similarly, we challenge the media to name 1 election race in 2020 at the State Level which shows the Dems outperforming Billary 2016? Just 1.
Click on link here:
Fake News NBC: “What is your read having live through the big polling miss particularly in the Midwestern states. Where is your hat at?”