The 3 Gorges Dam is not out of the woods yet. According to 2 weather models, the Yangtze river basin will experience heavy rainfall over the next 10 days. This will but pressure on the 3 Gorges Dam, but after 6 rounds of fighting floods, the dam is not the same dam it was.
This is the 10 day weather forecast for the Yangtze River basin. The color scale of deep purple indicates rainfall above 90mm. From this picture we will see that the entire Middle and South China will experience heavy rainfall from 13 Sep to 23 Sep.
This is the same forecast by Windy with the area in light pink indicating above 100mm. The 2 weather models, the ICONZ model by Ventusky and the European model used by Windy are telling the same picture.
Massive flooding to hit all sections of the Yangtze river basin. We have traced the Yangtze river’s channel using the black marker. As in a flood, all the rainfall will discharge into the Yangtze river and come hurtling down the 3 Gorges dam.
There are 2 ways to arrive at an answer.
The first is to wait for China to give you an answer. Judging by their record, it will come too late. The second is to apply analytical techniques to infer what is going on.
Look at the outflow rate for the 3 Gorges dam. It is now at the lowest level since July, at 17,000 m3/s. The water level is however still above the flood control level of 145m by at 11 m, it is currently at 156m. Furthermore, the Chinese Communist Party has stopped the live feed of videos of the 3 Gorges dam. We also know that there is major flooding still to come, so at this stage why is it that the 3 Gorges dam is discharging at such a low rate.
There are 2 ways to arrive at an answer.
The first is to wait for China to give you an answer. Judging by their record, it will come too late.
The second is to apply simple principles of physics and to Bayesian probability to understand unobservable events.
We know China will never want to show the dam being repaired or having sustained damage.
The second thing is that footage of the 3 Gorges Dam, which was live streaming for the last several months has been suspended for several days.
The third we know that the 3 Gorges dam discharged water at 50,000 tons/s for several days in the last week of August and discharging huge volumes of water and high flow will cause cavitation – it is a scientific fact. The only thing that is variable is the cavitation index. Cavitation damages the internal structure of the dam.
The 4th fact we know is that the dam is currently discharging at a record low rate, even though it is above the flood control level of 145m and the best available forecast is that the whole Yangtze river basin will see massive flooding over the next 10 days. Thus we can eliminate the Low outflow as a result of the dam operations switching to the drought control measure mode, when flood water is stored for use during the drought. This concept of using a dam to exert control over nature was perpetrated by Stalin in his book called the Political Economy.
Fifth, a damaged dam cannot discharge as effectively as cavitation will continue to increase due to internal structural damage. The 3 Gorges dam is now discharging at a fraction of its capacity.
New: ‘Whack a mole’ mode
The most glaring evidence that the dam has sustained damage is to look at the outflow graph over the last 3 days. Basically the step like nature indicates the opening and closing of a discharge channel. They open it for 1 hour and close it. This is usually done if there is a lack of confidence that a particular channel can be operated continuously.
There is now no mandate to retain water for drought as there is still heavy rainfall.
So by any Bayesian probability system – we can estimate at a high degree of probability that the 3 Gorges dam is now damaged. Probably there are urgent repair works undertaken right now to rectify the situation. It needs to complete within 10 days as Flood No 7 will form next week, as per the weather models.
Remember, we warned readers a week ago about the NASDAQ, and we were proven correct. The 3 Gorges dam is in serious danger.