On December 21, 2018, The Rembau Times officially withdrew support for Pakatan Harapan and made a prediction that UMNO will be back in power within 24 months. At that time, many sneered and said that we were ‘smoking something’ or crazy.
Today we are proven correct as Tan Sri Muhiyiddin Yassin is appointed as the 8th Prime Minister on the back of an UMNO -PAS coalition. Even writing about PH is a waste of time as PH never followed any of our advice. However, for the sake of closure on PH, we will spend about 10 mins to pen our thoughts on why PH government fell and why there is 0 chance right now of any hope of PH returning to power.
The main issues
- Seafield temple issue
PH fell because it was clearly obvious to everybody that by the end of 2019, the PH Government had lost the support of the rakyat.
PH could not even defend seats which they had won with a strong majority as the Malay electorate completely shunned PH. The reason – Seafield Temple issue. PH did not follow our advice to sack a) Waytha and his gang, b) the DAP EXCO member (Ganabatirau) who came up with a stupid statement, c) enforce the rule of law.
2. The Economy
PH completely messed up the economy from the first day. The decision to abolish GST was stupid as it deprived the Government of an important source of revenue and at the same time, the imposition of new taxes resulted in prices remaining high due to ‘price stickiness’. This is basic economics. Furthermore, PH never seriously courted the important fund managers who could have contributed to portfolio inflows. Their Economics team fought with foreign fund managers when they should instead of answered in a diplomatic way and did many roadshows. None of these things happened, the Ringgit never recovered and the economy went down. This issue caused PH to even lose their core Chinese support as shown in the defeat PH suffered in Johor. I give Guan Eng and his team an ‘F’ for the economy. Johari Abdul Ghani, the ex-Minister of Finance 2 would have run circles around them! Even Najib would have done better!
3. Infighting within PKR
The infighting within PKR was a direct contributing factor. PKR MPs could not even understand the most basic fact in politics, which is if an election was called today, PH will lose flat out. Their support has been eroded but the YBs with their oversized egos could not see this. PKR infighting however is nothing new, but the people got sick and tired with it.
4. Losing the civil service
PH lost the civil service quite early on with DAP’s extremely hostile attitude. Remember how SPAD was closed down by Minister Anthony Loke? A very unwise move to make so early into the administration. Furthermore, PH came in like a conquering regime, so eager to appoint their Special Duty officers who then behaved like they owned the ‘Government’
Well, the civil service need not worry about that anymore.
5. ZERO Tactical Intelligence
PH Government had virtually ZERO tactical intelligence. By tactical intelligence, we mean how the Government conducts itself so that it is perceived favorably by the rakyat. A Government that is tactically intelligent knows what to message to the rakyat , when to keep on message and when to change the message. I think the only message I can remember from the PH Government is that Malaysia has a RM 1 Trillion debt problem and that the source of humanity’s pain is Najib! They may even blamed the coronavirus on Najib too if they had the chance. Their messages were disjointed and ineffective.
There never was an effort to to form a centralized Governments Communication HQ to co-ordinate between all the various diverse parties. DAP MPs like Ramkarpal were always quick to hammer their Prime Minister in social media so people had the impression that Tun was walking a tightrope. How stupid can that be. For 60 years, DAP behaved like the opposition and when they finally became the Government, they still behaved like the Opposition.
Well since they like behaving like the Opposition so much, they can continue to do that as His Majesty’s Loyal Opposition.
6. Incompetent Cabinet
The PH Cabinet was mostly incompetent. From ‘Flying Car’ Ministers to Ministers avoiding Parliamentary duties. The only Cabinet Minister that deserves some respect is the ex Minister of Health, Dr Dzul, who happens to hold a PhD from Imperial College. His intelligence was clear when he enforced the smoking ban on restaurants. That was smart.
7. Tun Dr Mahathir
He should have stepped down last year. There was a window of opportunity to hand over the Government to Dato Seri Anwar in February 2019 after the stunning defeat at the Cameron Highlands by-election. But he wanted the KSM medal.
Enough time wasted on PH.
Update: 01 Mar 2020
To recap, we predicted that Tun Dr Mahathir would become PM in 2017, and he became PM in 2018. We predicted that the PH Government would fall within 2 years in Dec 2018, and it collapsed in Feb 2020. So now comes yet another prediction :
When the dust finally settles, Najib will be re-established as Prime Minister.
Time frame: 1 year.