On Aug 26, 2017, The Rembau Times predicted that Tun Dr Mahathir may once again become Prime Minister. This prediction was made at a time when a BN victory at GE 14 was considered all but a done deal. We never wavered from this prediction and our prediction proved prescient as the 93 year old statesman took the oath of office as Prime Minister on 10th May 2018. We provided our analysis on why this was poised to happen over here, here and here.
The warnings were ignored by UMNO and in less than 10 months after we issued our call, Najib Razak was out of power and was sitting in the dock facing criminal charges for corruption.
Today, The Rembau Times once again is poised to offer a ground breaking prediction. Rather than end up dead, buried or as an exhibit in the National Museum, UMNO will be back in power within 2 years, but maybe even earlier.
We will now explain why.
In the aftermath of GE 14, the incoming Pakatan Harapan leadership became enamoured with this concept of “Malaysia Baru” without actually defining it, which incidentally was the same mistake ex-Prime Minister Najib Razak had done when he gave the country the “1Malaysia” finger. However, let me actually drive home what “Malaysia Baru” is and why it has completely repulsed the key voting segments which swung Pakatan Harapan to power.
To the rural population, “Malaysia Baru” means extreme hardship as the price of Palm Oil has collapsed. To the vast segment in the Bottom 40 group, “Malaysia Baru” meant a failed opportunity to benefit from the RM 2,000 BRIM promised by BN as well as having to face rising prices due to the imposition of SST, which had the effect of raising prices as prices are “sticky” due to the previous imposition of GST. For the youths, “Malaysia Baru” means broken promises as PTPTN was not abolished and the Government had even considered deducting their already meagre salaries to repay the PTPTN loan. We could go on about even how “Malaysia Baru” has alienated the vast majority in the country due to the rising racial tensions, in part due to incompetent Ministers who shoot from the hip without due consideration of the effect of their actions and words.
Secondly, the PH Government is a Government formed by parties of widely differing ideologies. There is Bersatu which is centre-right, DAP which is socialist, PKR which is left wing, Warisan which is State focussed and Hindraf, which is right wing. This point was extremely well articulated by UMNO pundit, Zahrain Mohd Yassin who argued that such a Government will find itself hampered, disunited and unable to come to a common policy which serves the majority of the country.
That however is only half the story.
The other half has to do with the upcoming resurgence of UMNO under the Acting President, ex-Negeri Sembilan Menteri Besar and current Head of UMNO Rembau Division, Dato’ Seri Mohamad bin Hasan. The UMNO under Najib Razak is gone. There is a new UMNO which is relatively untainted and has very as strong faces in UMNO Youth and Wanita UMNO. UMNO still maintains a political a network, which sprawls from the Sulu Sea to the Borders of Thailand , developed over the past 60 years and has kept UMNO in power in 13 of the last 14 General Elections . From where I come from, that is called a 93% success rate and the 7% is an aberration rather than a new norm.
So while some UMNO MPs who are unable to stand the heat think about making short term political moves, we will offer some friendly advice, which can be summarised in one word: WAIT.
And to those in the Pakatan Harapan Government who assume that their job is done because they capitalised on the previous administrations’ failure, have not offered any economic recovery plans, have been found out to be completely out of their depth in dealing with the complex issues facing Malaysia, we offer slightly longer version: WAIT and SEE.