Following is the view of one of the Rembau Times readers on the final GE 14 results.
Dear Rembau Times,
I’ve done an excel spreadsheet (as attached) on the racial composition in Peninsular Malaysia, broken the seats down into 4 categories, i.e. Malay majority seats except for Kelantan and Terengganu which consist of 28 seats, Malay majority seats in Kelantan and Terengganu (22 seats), Malay medium majority seats (65) and Chinese/Mixed seats (50), and the expected support for BN, PH and PAS.
For all Peninsular states except Kelantan and Terengganu, I predict BN’s Malay support will drop fr GE13’s 65% to 45%, in line with forecasts from several non-mainstream articles. PR’s Malay support in GE13 was 35% and it is assumed 15% of that belong to PAS, which is in line with Invoke’s survey. Hence, PH will lose 15% of Malay support to PAS, but gain 20% of Malay support from BN, for a total of 40% Malay support.
For Kelantan and Terengganu, I predict BN and PAS are evenly matched, with PH not making much of a dent. To simplify my analysis, I consider Chinese and Indian votes as negligible in category.
For mixed/Chinese seats, I consider the race composition the same as our national ratio of 65% Malays, 25% Chinese and 10% Indians, even though in reality it differs according to areas. But it won’t influence the result as Pakatan is expected to win 99% of those seats regardless of whether the ratio has 65% Malays or less.
There’s no doubt that BN’s 65% Malay support in GE13 will be reduced, mainly due to resentment towards caretaker Prime Minister Najib and the BN government he leads, and the addition of 1 million new Malay voters. The question is by how many percentage points will the Malay swing be. There were about 8.7 million eligible Malay voters in GE13. The addition of 1 million new Malay voters translates into an 11.4% increase. If 70% of new Malay voters support PH (based on non-mainstream findings), that’s already a swing of about 8%. So a total swing of 20 percentage points is not that far fetched. In fact, I’d say that it’s quite conservative.
So based on a “conservative” 20% Malay swing, and assuming that the Chinese turn out in droves to vote like in GE13, my simple excel simulation shows that Pakatan can win about 100 seats in Peninsular alone. With that in hand, PH only need another 12 seats fr East Msia to form the federal government, but in all likelihood, they’ll need about 18-20 to form a stable govt. My prediction is PH will form Federal Govt with 118 seats. Pakatan will win. #WIN!
There are 3 ways we form a view
- Reason – this is usually after the fact. Most journalists go by ‘reason’ when trying to make sense of an unexpected outcome.
- Forecast – Bro AW here did a forecast and he came with 118 seats. This is based on estimates of probable turnouts and voting patterns
3rd reason – Conviction
- For The Rembau Times we are driven by conviction when we first made the call in 2017. If you listen to Rafizi who has probably the best current election prediction, PH is now neck to neck with BN in terms of Malay support. PAS is always 3rd place.
- Our conviction, PH to win massively and form a 2/3 Government.
- My conviction is that every state in Peninsular Malaysia will fall to PH and BN will suffer a catastrophic loss.
- The basis of which we can only reveal to the incoming Prime Minister, but it is related to one incident in February 2017 which was not dealt with properly. The incident effectively sealed BN’s fate.
- Warisan is rocking in Sabah, I think people are assuming that BN will just walk over in Sabah. That may not be true as Dato Seri Shafie Apdal is one fantastic campaigner.
- I’m not worried about what the EC will or will not do. The decision is not in their hand to determine who rules the country.