Updates on the Tsunami Rakyat

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On Apr 1, The Rembau Times predicted that the then widely disbelieved ‘Malay Tsunami’ was real and poised to change the election landscape. Initially, it was disbelieved and only a couple of hundred readers actually bothered to read the post.

As of today, the total views on the post has exceeded 50,000 – a record for the Rembau Times and The Editor. This is because The Editor has remained anonymous for the past 10 years as a social media commentator and not advertised himself publicly.

Fast forward 21 days, and nobody in Pakatan Harapan or even Barisan Nasional denies that there are big changes taking place in the Malay community. In fact, even though most analysts still predict a BN victory, they are now qualifying their view with their observation that there is palpable anger among the Malays towards the BN Government due to the economic hardship and rising cost of goods. As a general rule, analysts hate to predict a BN defeat as it is what they term as ‘a low probability event’ because of a behavioral bias called ‘status quo bias’.

While there has been a palpable shift towards Pakatan Harapan over the past 3 weeks, the following key questions remain unanswered.

  1. Has Pakatan Harapan ‘maxed’ out its support from the Malay Community?
  2. Will BN be able to recover some of the support or will it continue to bleed support right up to polling day.

Lets try to answer each question.

Has Pakatan Harapan ‘maxed’ out its support from the Malay Community?

Paktan Harapan support is yet to peak as right now it is seen as a Political Innovation. If the support is modelled using standard diffusion model then support will grow at least another 20% prior to election day.

With the General Elections still 2.5  weeks away, the question many are asking is whether or not Pakatan Harapan has maxed out its support from the Malay community or will they be able to continue to convert fence sitters and BN voters towards supporting their cause.

As we had noted earlier, Pakatan Harapan ‘early adopters’ comprise mainly of the largest voting segment for PRU 14, the ‘Below 40’ group.  As the campaign progressed, they are winning over Male voters but still are lagging behind BN in the older voter and middle aged Female segment.

Even The Star acknowledges that BN stalwarts are facing a tough fight in traditionally safe seats. Sembrong is as blue as blue can get. If Hishammuddin as Defense Minister has a fight here, it is safe to assume that BN is facing a massive revolt throughout the country.

In one word – ‘No’. Pakatan Harapan has not maxed out its support from the Malay community by any stretch of the imagination. In fact, support is increasing as we examine the following segments.

(1) Below 40, Urban, semi urban voters, regardless of gender

This segment is completely dominated by Pakatan Harapan. The support is now probably trending 75% in favour of Pakatan Harapan, 20% in favour of BN. BN has lost this segment . Massively!

(2) Generasi 2 Felda Voters

Pakatan Harapan’s ceramah at Felda Johol on 21 Apr ’18 smashed expectations. Johol is a Dreadnought class UMNO stronghold. You dont just pitch your tent and expect voters to show up. Credits : http://semberono.com

These are the kingmakers in the election as they will determine the fate of 50+ parliamentary seats in the General Election. This is evidenced by the support indicated through ceramahs held in Felda strongholds throughout the country, such as in Perlis, Kedah, Kelantan, Pahang, Perak, Selangor and Johor . Of all these events only the Ceramah at Felda Chini received lukewarm response, the rest were packed to the rafters.It is in no doubt there is a massive swing in this segment . For this segment, Pakatan Harapan will probably lead by about 60 to 65% to Pakatan Harapan vs 30 to 35% in favour of BN. This is a crucial vote bank that BN is losing day by day. This segment used to bear some loyalty to BN/UMNO, but that loyalty has been eradicated due to relentless campaigning by the NGO Anak, economic and mismanagement of Felda issues.

(3) Older Felda settlers

This is the segment that Pakatan Harapan is focusing on and through the influence of the children, Pakatan Harapan may only lose this segment slightly – 40% compared to 50% for BN.

(4) Other Males

BN has a leadership deficit as there are no longer any Ministers with sufficient credibility left in the Government.

This segment refers to all other Males not included in the above segments.

They comprise of middle aged males in urban and semi urban areas, small traders in rural areas, Government retirees and other older males throughout the country. This segment has been hardest hit by the rising cost of goods due to their role as the heads of the respective families. This segment also grew up under prosperity during Tun Dr Mahathir’s time and was previously a bedrock of support for BN/UMNO as they grew up with UMNO. However, BN is bleeding support from this segment as polling day arrives as they are influenced by their children as well as the impact of rising prices and the lack of quality in BN’s leadership. This segment will swing to Pakatan Harapan by about 55% versus 40 – 45% BN and 10 to 15% PAS. And with the unity among all races on display at PH ceramah it is working to remind many older Malays of the harmony before these kleptocrats came to town. More positive for PH

 

(5) Middle Aged and Older Females aka. Wanita UMNO

This is the last remaining bedrock for BN.  BN will probably hold on to this segment, albeit with some difficulty. The Wanita UMNO segment has been the most loyal segment as some of them have become entrepreneurs on their own right and they relish the independence accorded to them. However, those who are housewives would feel the effect of rising cost of goods. The final analysis, BN to win this segment by about 55 to 60% compared to 40 to 45% for Pakatan Harapan.

So in conclusion, PH has yet to ‘max’ out their support with the Malays. PH can count on the youth vote as their political base and are now actively convincing older male voters to support their cause.  Conservatively, PH has already tied BN in the Malay vote bank. Realistically, if the elections were held today, they are about 3 to 5 percentage points ahead. The Chinese segment is still PH, by about 75% in favour, versus 25% in favour of BN.  PH is still behind the Indian segment by 40% versus 60% in favour of BN. All in all, PH is now leading BN.

Will BN be able to recover some of the support or will it continue to bleed support right up to polling day.

Former finance minister, Tun Daim criticized the Government’s decision to exempt CCCC from paying

BN has failed to make any inroads to halt or stall Pakatan’s momentum. Additionally, they are on the backfoot due to the GST issue and also now, as a wildcard, the question of whether UMNO is itself a legal entity.

They have  revealed their candidate list for most states except Sabah. Most importantly i dont remember Najib being at any of them as the candidates were announced by the respective Menteri Besar. MCA seemed to have shot their foot on the Machap Jaya . Expect some level of internal sabotage among Johor UMNO especially in Tg Piai. But most importantly the BN Bulls are keeping quiet and not sounding so sure of themselves. That is a sure sign of PANIK.

Post notes:

(Note to readers: Our prediction on the Tsunami Rakyat is not because we are smarter or better informed. There is only one single overarching reason which God willing, we will share with the incoming Prime Minister and Cabinet. As a precursor, it has nothing to do with anything we have written so far, nothing to do with GST, nothing to do with 1MDB. What is written below is ‘after the fact’ analysis because it is easier for readers to accept.

Btw, anybody want to venture a theory why a true Najib loyalist as in the Deputy Info Minister Jalaini Johari was dropped. This is not a small matter and the implications are huge post GE14.To me the answer is obvious.

Mainstream media e.g The Star still denies the existence of a Malay tsunami. Good on them.

When BN is defeated many will say on hindsight it was quite obvious i.e hindsight bias. After all who wants thieves as leaders?)

Updated 26 Apr: My bad, Pakatan Harapan’s ceramah at Felda Chini was quite good as well. About 2.5k audience.

14 COMMENTS

  1. from my discussion with my friends in the 60s many are not in favor of the BN anymore not because of UMNO but the leaders and the members who are so blind with the rhetoric of UMNO leaders. Sad and sorry to say it is gone with the wind.

  2. “we may have met before….somewhere, somehow”

    So we have come to this… multi cornered fight instead of one-to-one, where bias thinking is first to get 51% win. this 51% is key bcoz it relates to “default passing mark” in any exam etc. and this 51% has clouded their vision. In most cases, it is unlikely anyone will get 51% in most dun/parliament fight bcoz it will be a case of who get the most % of that dun/parliament. So, it can be 40% [even thought that is not the “default passing mark”] if the other parties both get 30% each…..

    now as this fact draws down on those who planned this approach of using PAS as means of breaking up popular vote bank [to avoid tipping point]…. the Q is will BN have cold feet…

    note;
    – totally disregard internal matter within UMNo [no election past 5 year… not fit, no game time]
    – totally disregard external factor; Bersatu, che det & pak syeikh,,,,
    – and everything in between….

    all that money and they couldn’t find smarter people, oh well… i know not of the cure for stupidity

    2020

  3. Your intelligence somehow left PAS out of picture or radar.
    But high possibility the shift from BN may not necessary be to PH but high percentage could go to PAS.
    PAS are keeping a low profile but may spring surprises

  4. I appreciate your bold analyses, here and in your other pieces. Things have certainly changed very rapidly in mere weeks and the ground shift is palpable. I totally agree with your contention that PM blinked last summer & missed a clear chance of winning by delaying the GE to this year. I expect he wanted to tie up the gerrymandering & PAS arrangements first.

    BNs listless machinery has also surprised – they dont seem to have the resources & cohesion they did in GE13. PHs campaign strategy on the other hand is breathtaking in its suppleness and smarts, and has struck an emotional chord even with an old cynic like me.

    A few questions if you can spare the time:

    – have you factored in young first-time voters? Helping out with Pulang Mengundi recently, I was struck by how many students were so determined to balik kampung to vote in order to ‘save their country.’

    – what sort of voter turnout are you expecting? Can we really hope for at least 85% as before with the mid-week polling day?

    – I note that you appraise Felda support for example through the size of the ceramah turnout. GE13 opposition rallies drew mammoth crowds which did not translate into votes, not in the Malay segment anyway. How would you reconcile this and can we really place our hope in a substantial Malay swing through the size of ceramah turnouts?

    • Hi KL Lite,
      I’ll answer the last question and maybe make a post on it.
      If you take a look at the GE 13 campaign pictures featuring Anwar Ibrahim, the Malay participation was very low. And of those who participated, most of them were wearing ‘white kopiah’ and / or PAS T-shirts. This means Pakatan Rakyat did not even make a dent in the Malay vote. There was never any evidence of Pakatan Rakyat going into an UMNO stronghold, like a Felda and drawing support.
      (2) In the eyes of the Malays, you can’t compare Anwar Ibrahim to Tun Dr Mahathir. TDM is in a totally different league. Anyway DSAI had destroyed his credibility because of the Saiful case leading up to GE 13 and his constant harping of changing the govt by crossover.
      You should look at the response TDM gets from rural Malays i.e. the political base of UMNO. Even Najib does not even get that kind of response.

      • I think the difference between TDM and DSAI is the difference between an aircraft carrier and a battleship. Najib knew DSAI weakness and could was confident enough to face him head on. With TDM, cant you see how scared Najib is
        a) Make ROS Ban Pribumi
        b) Hold election on Wednesday
        c) Now EC has issued a ruling that prohibits TDM’s picture.
        Are these guys scared of him or what…

        • Thank you RT. I agree that like Heineken, TDM reaches the parts that other beers including AI cannot reach.

          A buddy of mine likens BNs current campaign to Sadam Hussein in the 2nd Gulf War – we all waited for Sadam to unleash his infamous WMD but they never came because the joker didnt have any and was instead hiding in a bunker like a coward.

          Analogies aside, I’d be grateful for hard evidence of or numbers for the Malay swing. Are we looking at 10%, 15% or more? I note that the Malay swing in 1999 was massive (minus 27% according to OKM) so there is a historical precedent.

          Although I agree that TDM is more effective than AI as an opposition leader, the playing field has shifted too since GE13. The gerry-mandering & 3 cornered fights mean a much larger popular vote is required to dislodge the incumbent. People are talking about a 60% pop vote but Im not confident that would be enough.

          And no pollster can confidently tell me what the impact of a Malay swing would be in the light of these new ethnic constituencies of the recent gerry-mandering. Is a significant Malay swing more fatal to BN with the existence of largely Malay constituencies? Can you help explain the stats?

          Cheers bro.

          • I think prima facie we are currently looking at a 20% swing on Malay votes. You can verify it easily thru a technique called the law of large numbers. Randomly select 100 voters who previously supported BN. If you can find at least 50 who support BN then there is no swing. If you can find only 30 and that with difficulty then there is at least a 20% swing. Try it for yourself among your grp

  5. Pls provide a breakdown of the actual number of seats that PH can win according to states.
    Pls justify why you think those seats can be won.
    A big thank you in advance.

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