With only 3 days to go before the US Presidential polls closes, the Rembau Times is making this bold prediction that Donald J. Trump will be elected as the 45th, and perhaps final, President of the United States of America.
A Trump victory will have profound political and economic consequences not only in America but throughout the World. This risk has been looming large over the Financial Markets and and already the S&P 500 ended the week before the U.S. election with its longest losing streak since 1980. However, the risk is still yet to be priced in as the S&P 500 has only declined by 3% over the past 9 sessions, which is still much higher than where it will trade should Trump be elected on Tuesday night. Experts anticipate that the effect may be even worse than the aftermath of Brexit, when the Dow Jones closed down 1,000 points after 2 days.
By way of background, the US Presidential Election is determined through the Electoral College voting system. Through this system, each state is assigned a predetermined number of electoral college votes which is proportional to its population. The candidate who wins the state, wins the electoral college votes and the magic number to win is 270.
The key to Donald Trump’s victory lies in the following states (electoral college votes): Michigan (16), Florida (29), New Hampshire (4), North Carolina (15), Arizona (11) and Ohio (18). Currently, most polls have Michigan as leaning Democrat, and the rest are undecided.
However, after backing the Democrat party ticket for the last 24 years, Michigan may flip to the Republicans due to a combination of voter disillusionment with Hilary Clinton’s candidacy and their attraction to protectionist trade policies offered by Trump. This theme has also been echoed by world famous documentary producer, Michael Moore, who claims that voters there may decide to vote Trump in order to “throw a Molotov cocktail” to the political establishment in Washington. In the case of New Hampshire which has voted in Democrat 5 out of the last 6 elections, latest opinion polls have Donald Trump ahead, probably again due to protest votes.
In the case of Ohio, the state is well known for switching between parties. The voters there backed Clinton in ’92 and ’96, Bush in ’00 and ’04 and Obama in ’08 and ’12. It is expected that this trend of alternating between parties will continue and the state to back Trump in this election. Recent opinion polling has Trump ahead 47-44. In the case of North Carolina, the state has traditionally been a Republican state and has only voted Democrats once since 1980, and that was in 2008 in the aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis.
If the above predictions were to come to come through, then it all hinges on Florida. Taking Florida out of the equation, Clinton leads Trump by 262 electoral college votes to 242. If Florida with its 29 votes goes Republican, then Trump wins the Presidency with a razor thin 275 votes to 262. Similarly if Florida goes Democrat, then it is all over for Trump
Currently, opinion polls in Florida have Clinton ahead by about 2 to 3 percentage points. However, a combination of loter voter turnout among the black voters and the FBI Director’s announcement that he is reopening the investigation into the Clinton email scandal may end up turning this election on the head.
If Trump were to win, this would have tremendous repercussions in Global trade and in the Oil market. It may also be related to certain Biblical prophecies concerning the end of times. One thing is sure though, should Trump win, it will be a result that will be met with extreme panic and incredulity from a shocked public.