On the face of it, any electoral pundit would claim this to be complete nonsense. Oregon has been enslaved by the Democratic party since 1988. The last Republican candidate to carry the state was Ronald Reagan against an unknown Walter Mondale. Bush came within 7,000 votes of taking the state in 2000, where the Green candidate Ralph Nader took 70,000 votes.
But if Trump is behind only by about 100,000+ votes in early voting, there is ample evidence that Trump can take Oregon. And right now the situation on early voting as of 24th October 2020 is like this:
Republicans are -170K but most tellingly there is a huge turnout for No Party Affiliation. This segment is heavy pro-Trump. And not all Democrats are voting Biden, read on ahead to find out why.
However, the City of Portland, the most populous city in Oregon has been rocked with riots since May. The state is governed by Governor Kate Brown, a Democrat, who assumed office in 2015.
Can this change the riots change the maths?