One thing which has fascinated me was how the power elite in courts of Louis XIV celebrated New Years day of 1789. They probably feasted on pheasant, mutton au jus, cakes and plenty of wine in the sprawling well manicured lawns in the Palace of Versailles, all the while entertained with gossip and fancy hair styles.
They were probably oblivious to their fate that would befall them in approximately 8 months time, which saw the Palace at Versailles stormed by an angry mob of Parisians, and the Emperor and his entire family meeting violent deaths over the next several years.
For many Generation X’ers in Asia, we grew up on a news cycle that showcased America’s unsurpassed military superiority over the last 3 decades. The idea that the United States could be defeated in a conventional war sounds ridiculous. We see the pictures of the B2 stealth bomber, the nuclear powered Aircraft carrier, the F-35 Raptor and a host of other technologically superior fire-power.
Yet today on the 10th January 2021, we see a real risk that the United States could face its disintegration , not via a conventional war, but as a result of a kinetic escalation of a 5th Generational style Information War fought internally.
The rest of this article discusses this view.
One of the hallmarks of the 21st century were inexperienced and foolish individuals amassing fortunes before they even touched 30. While getting rich at a young age sounds seductive, with people setting aspirational goals to be a millionaire by 25 and a billionaire by 30 and a trillionaire by 50, the truth is quite the opposite. Getting rich when you’re young means being surrounded by lackeys and fakers from a young age and ascribing to a self-obsessed view. What is worse when these individuals use their wealth and power to alter certain social contracts that exist in a society, thinking that their way is always right and they are more informed than the rest of us.
The case in point example of this was Big Tech’s decision to get involved in the recent US Election in an overt manner. What Big Tech and their Big Media acolytes do not realize is that the ‘deplorables’ they so despise actually count for the majority of the US population. For example, Small Business employ over 45 million Americans, and Big Tech and Big Media engaged in an unrestricted , no-holds barred style attack on their President.
The discussion of this is only a complete by considering the power bases engaged in this 5th generational style war.
Big Tech and the billionaire class have coercive power, information power, platform power, power of reward and connection power. They have money, which they can throw about to fund any woke idea of their choosing. They can add thousands of followers to your social media account and they can de-platform you on the turn of a dime. Their platform power grew unchecked because the cost – benefit calculation always tended towards using their platforms and deriving economies of scale as opposed to going-it-alone. Small business America treats them as an oddity, the kind of thing people don’t understand and their relevance to them is only as examples of hyperbole.
The Government machinery, meaning the Election Officials, the State Secretaries, the FBI, the US Postal Services, and all those whose responsibility it was to ensure that the power vested in them was used in accordance to the Constitution , have legitimate power. The postal service can choose to backdate ballots, election workers can choose to pull ballots out from under a table and the FBI can choose to do nothing.
What turns this into a powder keg scenario is when the reward power base of Big Tech is leveraged to become legitimate power. For example, the Facebook founder poured hundreds of millions into the US Election, the Google people regularly tweaked the search algorithm to fit their views but the real question is to what extend did Big Tech succeed in their endeavor over influencing the result of a Presidential Election. Big Media attacked Trump on every inch of their website, and could not string together a proper reporting of facts without adding their biased narrative.
As a Malaysian, we saw a similar kind of tactic employed in the last days of the Najib administration, who wanted to bury the 1MDB Scandal. The idea is drawn from Joseph Goebbles , ‘report a lie long enough and people will believe it.‘ However, what they don’t tell you is that Gobbles and his family committed suicide with Berlin reduced to rubble and the Red Army breathing down their footsteps. We fundamentally believe that repeating a lie long enough just heaps the level of judgement ultimately delivered by the Judge of the Universe.
On the other side was Donald J Trump, the 45th President of the United States. On the surface, the President has tremendous amount of legitimate power. He could sent out a Tweet on Sunday that wipes out hundreds of billions in the stock market, he could choose to engage in massive power play with other world superpowers, he could launch nuclear weapons and destroy the world.
The one other power base which Donald Trump has in tremendous abundance is referent power, the most important principle of power. Donald Trump is the President of Small Business America, the forgotten people dotted throughout the American heartland. These are the people the media calls the deplorables, the White Trash, the racist, and now , the domestic terrorists. This is evidenced by Donald Trump winning the battle, in the sense he got the most votes ever by an incumbent President and winning almost every bellwether county in the country, from Bremer County in Iowa, to Valencia County in New Mexico. Big Tech’s attempt to drive a wedge between the President and his supporters only made him more popular.
The connection the President has with his supporters is not something any other politician can sustain after 4 years in office. President Obama was sworn in on the back of shouts of ‘Yes We Can‘, but 4 years later, his total vote count was down by millions.
On the other hand, Trump’s total vote count was up by millions.
Trump delivered exactly what he promised to do to the ‘forgotten people‘ he promised to represent – he did what he said he planned to do. He brought millions of these forgotten people into the political discussion, assiduously courted them and did what mattered most to them, which was to keep his promise.
That as perhaps to his peril as he enraged the ruling political class which cost him the Presidency. These millions of ‘nobodies’ repulse the Senate class, who prefer to be surrounded by those on the Davos invitation shortlist. I guess Fakers like to be surrounded by fakers.
In the end however, the ruling political class, the Big Tech billionaires and their Big Media acolytes won. Biden was certified as the next President of the United States on Wednesday 06th Jan 2021. Trump was defeated and the elites are now turning their ire on Trumpism, which is a euphemism for those who hold views contrary to the narrative they intend to push.
So Big Tech wins. Politics is dirty. Life sucks. Get used to it.
Not so fast.
On 06 January, 2021, Trump supporters stormed the US Capitol in objection to the certification of the result, an act that has never taken place in the history of the United States. 5 people died, 4 Trump supporters, with an ex-Air Force veteran of 4 tour of duties dying from a gunshot wound , and 1 member of law enforcement succumbing to his injuries sustained in the line of duty. Our point is not to pass any judgement on the event itself but to draw out the probable consequences of this event. We would however add that our personal conviction is to not put our faith in man, for man is fallible and requires propping up.
This type of event is called a tail risk event and the risk we see is a collapse of the United States as a Federal Constitutional republic.
It does not mean that if the event occurs, the stock market will collapse, but what it means is that the event itself is so rare, that it could portend to something that would cause the stock market to collapse, and thus get everyone’s attention. Tail risk events are kind of like a prelude to the grand finale .
While the Senate Majority Leader, Chuck Schumer called it an equivalent of Pearl Harbour, but surprisingly there was not 1 single counter protest in any part of America against this event. Not 1. Not even by Antifa. In contrast, the day after Pearl Harbour, hundreds of thousands of regular Americans marched in the streets to get drafted into the military to avenge the attack. Outside the media and political elite, there is simply no evidence at all that the storming of the capitol caused widespread revulsion in the United States. We will change this view if we do come across any evidence to the contrary. The building that housed the supposed representatives of the people got stormed and nobody bat an eyelid.
(Note: YouGov released a poll that indicates that overwhelming majority of Democrats viewed the protestors as Domestic Terrorists. Sample size: ~1,000 )
If you look around at the world, there are only 3 countries we can think of which has had an unchanged form of Government for the last 300 years, namely the United Kingdom, The Kingdom of Thailand (from absolute monarchy to constitutional monarchy) and the United States. 2 out of 3 are based on the concept of a Constitutional Monarchy, with the United States being the exception of a Constitutional Federal Republic.
Think about this for a moment – all empires and forms of Government eventually collapse. And for a Earth some people say has been in existence of billions of years, a timeframe of 300 years sounds as durable as a grain of sand.
Our conclusion is that while Biden will be sworn in as the President of the United States, the risk of an internal disintegration of the country he is President of is a real risk and should not be underestimated. Perhaps with a bit more life experience, Big Tech may have better understood the implications of their actions not only on their stock price, but on the very existence of the country they want to control.