Elections are less to do with statistical voodoo but practical common sense. In Texas, practical common sense dictates that the state could flip to the Democrats due to several factors described in this post, unless the President makes it a top priority to win over the state as well as the party machinery.
If the President Trump loses Texas, it is all over. Literally.
And if you’re the average Texan voter, you would be facing this
- A) Strong disapproval of President Trump by the Bush clan the most prolific Texan political dynasty.
Remember Dallas the TV show was based on Texas. Malaysians understand this as the Kelantanese syndrom – meaning to a Kelantanese, you may as well hail from another planet if your not from Kelantan.
- B) A collapsing state economy due to the collapse in oil prices. We will cover it a bit more in this article
- The sum of A) and B) would logically cause you to register a protest vote, voting Beijing Biden in favour of President Trump to the White House. In 4 years, the Congress may be replaced by the Great Hall of the People as the decision making entity for America, but heck, who is going to think that far out.
Thinking aloud, if the Rembau Times had the “honour” (or thankless job) of advising the President on his Texas strategy, we would keep it to this
- Understanding of the issue
- Formulation of the response
- Execution of item 2
- Understanding of the issue
The biggest issue in Texas is the collapsing state economy. This is made clear by the latest survey from the Bureau of Labor Statistics for Texas.
Lets lay it out in gory detail (12 month employment change as of Jul 20)
- Mining aka Oil and Gas: DOWN 24% (1 in 4 unemployed)
- Leisure & Hospitality aka Tourism aka Trump Hotels: DOWN 16%
- Construction down 3%
- IT Services : down 6.7%
To drive home the point, a proper strategist would probably take a segment of the S&P500 as of election day 2016 to include major employers / firms headquartered in Texas and actual calculate the value of the index as of today. My guess is that it will be down 20 or 30% or in bear market territory. That is the index that matters – the Texas <Insert your catchy name here> Index, which will drive the election result in Texas and whether you will need to fill your IRS Tax Return in Hanyu Pinyin in 4 years time.
2. Formulation of the response
The response needs to be thought through. Giving money like what was done to farmers may not work as Texans are a proud race. What is required is not money but hope. Hope comes in many forms, either by forcing the “evil” tech giants to start pouring money into Texas or hit them with sanctions (Cupertino will never vote GOP), use the resources of the Federal government to convert land from oil and gas extraction to farming (China will have food shortages lasting years, hence a reduction in supply and a tail wind for the sector), 1 off Federal loan to the state to upgrade infrastructure – what ever that needs to be done.
3. Execution of Strategy
Ok thats it right now, I’ll leave 3 for those “honoured” (or cursed, its a thankless job) to advice the President on the details.