As the Presidential Election is about 2 months away, most opinion polls currently put Joe Biden ahead. Even the famed election pollster, Alan Lichtman, author of the 13 Keys Model to the White House has predicted a Biden victory.
Only The Rembau Times stood alone in boldly declaring that the President will retain the White House in our historical analysis piece over here.
We now have the data to back this up. This election is not even going to be close – Trump is going to crush Beijing Biden.
Before we proceed further, this what the ‘experts’ say:
Currently, based on all the data that is considered conventional, i.e. opinion polls, traditional media viewership channels – they point to a Democrat victory for Joe Biden. Nielsen for example said that Republicans lost the TV ratings race this week, as prime time viewership for the Republican National Convention was consistently below figures for the Democratic. The thing to note is that all the Conventional Data is based on traditional data points – polls and the like.
Once again, The Rembau Times is firmly in the minority as we predict not only a Trump victory, but a Trump landslide victory.
The reason has to do with Alternative Data, data that reveals more about a voter’s true intentions, the candidates profile and the public interest than a canned poll. This data relies on the 21st century technologies and platforms and has one marked advantage over Conventional Data, in that it is highly correlated to the actual level of engagement with a platform i.e. what is the gauge of the level of advocacy on a party’s digital political platform.
This also known as the “50 Cent Army Measure” , a reference to the digital army employed by the Chinese Communist Party as part of their effort to control digital narrative, where personnel are paid 50 cents for every comment they make defending the CCP.
And the Alternative Data suggests that the Republicans are going to win the General Election with a landslide as the advocacy on the GOP’s Digital Platform is an order of magnitude higher that with the Democrats. This is true even in Facebook where anecdotal evidence suggests that Joe Biden’s Facebook page is fast becoming a ‘ghost town’ whereas President Trump’s Facebook page is consistently stronger in the terms of activity and followers.
The Clintons have no more clout in the minds of the public – the number of views for Tiffany Trump’s speech on C-Span was more than 3x the number of views of Bill Clinton’s speech.
A canned poll suffers from many biases which can lead the result to be inconclusive. Namely the entire process is fundamentally flawed – a voter was suddenly accosted with a phone call by a stranger and pressed to give an answer. The deficiency is several fold, the first being the limitations of the data gathering process – samples are below 2,000, the second being the voter could lie, the third is that generalizations are applied to model the trend of a whole population, fourthly it is not forward looking.
Alternative Data, which can actually be obtained via social media channels gives a much truer representation of the voters intention. In this case, we will analyse the viewership on C-SPAN’s YouTube channel, a neutral organisation on the viewership of the respective parties National Day Conventions.
Democrats are on a Burning Platform
The big news is not what the pollsters tell you but what real Americans tell you. And real Americans have told us two things:
- Number one, they are willing to listen to the GOP (“Republican”) platform
- Number two – the Democrats are on a ‘burning platform‘
We will address item number two . A ‘burning platform’ is actually a business term to reflect when adopters of a previously well known technology jump ship to another technology. For example, in the early 2000s, Apple’s Macintosh ecosystem was a burning platform, having lost market share over the past two decades to the Windows – Intel alliance, leaving them with a market share of less than 5%.
Given that the gap between the viewership on CSPAN between GOP and the Democrats is not even close – it is of the order of 10x, this tells you that Americans do not want to tune in to the Democrat message as a whole. This divergence is going to widen further as a result of the Black Lives Matter riots, which have swung middle America massively to the Republicans.
*Note: In a way, we have to thank China, because China had been reported to have engaged military personnel in the Houston embassy to use incite Americans to go out and riot in an effort to get back at President Trump. The exact opposite has taken place.
The total viewership of the Republican National Day Convention was 5 million views, more than 10x the viewership for the Democrat National Day Convention. This is real data, in the sense that individual Americans had a choice to make, and they decided that by a margin of 10 : 1 that they preferred to tune in to the Republican convention rather than the Democrats. In a sense, this was a proxy vote – a viewer could choose either platform and Republicans smashed this by a landslide.
Democrats still dream of Obama. Tiffany Trump’s has 3x more views than Bill Clinton.
The issue plaguing the Democratic party is made clear by the comparison of the respective viewership for various speakers over the course of respective national day convention. The Democrat party is basically hanging on to dear life to the Obamas – President Barrack Obama and Michelle Obama together garnered 50% of the total number of views of the top 11 speakers.
Democrats are basically turned off by their party and are not engaging with the party’s burning platform.
The Clintons have no more clout in the minds of the public – the number of views for Tiffany Trump’s speech was more than 3x the number of views of Bill Clinton’s speech. Secretary Hilary Clinton fared a bit better than her husband, garnering 31,000 views but Don Trump Junior even beat than by over 6x! In the battle of the First Ladies, Melania Trump narrowly edged out Michelle Obama in terms of number of views.
The thing to note is that the Republican supporting cast all managed to garner respectable number of views, and the main event was the candidate himself, President Trump, as opposed to the Democrats who are desperately clinging on to the Obama’s star power.
Kamala Harris is not really a factor, garnering 179,00 views – and is not meaningfully able to add to the Democratic platform. Bernie Sanders also was still preaching to the converted, and appealed to a segment of the Democratic party. He too was unable to grow the platform. So too was Senator Elizabeth Warren and Speaker Pelosi – they appeal only to a segment of the Democratic party and not the population at large, as evidenced by the lackluster viewership stats of their speeches.
We believe that given the massive difference in C-Span viewership, the entire validity of narrow sampling of opinion polls should be called into question. The GOP’s tactics for the convention was spot on – it was like Bayern Munich demolishing Barcelona 8 – 2. We will cover it more in-depth in a latter post but it was Sun-Tzu ‘esque in the execution.
Democrats are basically turned off by their party and are not engaging with the party platform. Republicans on the other hand are pumped up and ready for this election fight. Given the obvious further revulsion to the far-left by middle America, the GOP can not only defend the White House but may actually make huge gains in the Gubernatorial and Congress races.