3 Gorges Dam Update – 19th August 2020

The flooding is so bad that even the official media is unable to deny it any longer. At current net inflow of 25,000 m3/s, the dam has less than 7 days of design capacity left.

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By now, most of China’s southern and central districts along the Yangtze River basin have been devastated by extensive flooding. The city of Chongqing, home to 8 million people is submerged under 2 meters of water. Chongqing is a very important city, perhaps even the 4th most important city in China as it is directly administered by the Central Government.

(In other words, it is a Wilayah Perseketuan , like in Shanghai, Beijing and Tianjin.)

No 1 China’s media can no longer deny the flood or its impact.

Based on Rembau Times internal simulation, at net inflow of 25,000 m3/s (inflow of 75,000 m3/s , discharge of 50,000 m3/s), the water level increases by 3.6 m per day*. So currently at 163.5m, the height can be expected to gain to 167.2 m by the same time tomorrow.  At 167.2m, it will be the highest record of the dam’s water level at flood season and the dam will only be able to further impound 26% of its flood storage capacity, or about 5.8 billion tonnes of water from an original flood absorbing capacity of 22 billion tonnes.

If the net inflow sustains at this level, the dam has at most  3.7 days remaining capacity left as of 20th Aug 2020, 9:18 pm Rembau Standard TIme.

*Updated 20th Aug 20, at 21:15 Rembau Standard Time

The flooding affecting China in 2020 is a result of virtually non-stop rain that fell along the Yangtze river basin beginning in June 2020. This was also accompanied by freak weather events, such as snow falling in the summer – events which hold deeply significant meaning in China as it is a sign that a grave injustice has taken place. The Rembau Times subscribes to the view that this flooding cannot be explained away as a result of global warming but is intended to show a clear sign to the atheist government that Heaven rules over the affairs of mankind. Even as this article is being published, China’s southern regions will face yet another weather event – Typhoon Higos which is bearing down on Guangdong and Hainan province.

The Rembau Times had issued a red alert for the 3 Gorges Dam on Jul 25, 2020. At that time, the Chinese authorities were downplaying the scenario and trying to convince the world that everything was business as usual. However, last week marked a major about turn when the Chinese government finally stopped pretending that everything was “business as usual” and began to take stock of the seriousness of the flooding, especially on its impact for future food security in China.

The flooding has destroyed a major portion of China’s rice production. We have already highlighted to our Finance Minister on the need for Malaysia to secure its rice supplies because the price of rice is going to shoot up massively in the coming months.

The looming food crisis facing China cannot be denied any longer.

This about change has finally led to the one thing the world had known for the last month but the Chinese media had consistently tried to deny – this is perhaps the most serious flooding of China since its formation as a nation.

China’s media can no longer pretend that everything is fine. The country is being ravaged by the worst floods in history,

Water level and flow at Cuntan/Chongqing (upstream), all monitoring period

The water level in Cuntan aka Chongqing is off the record

No 2 China’s current leadership present is nothing compared to the previous competent Chinese leadership.

Premier Wen Jiabao directing flood relief in 2010.

Prior to Xi Jinping, China actually had some good leaders. For example, when floods hit in 2010 Premier Wen Jiabao was on hand to coordinate the disaster relief. Also when President Hu Jintao was also known to be a consensus builder. However both were overshadowed by ex-President’s Jiang Zemin’s faction leading to their eventual ouster. Nobody had issues with China when they were in charge.

Premier Wen Jiabao was all hands on deck during the previous flood crisis. So was other leaders in China

Where is the current leadership in China during this crisis?

Answer: Silence. Make Dunno. (Buat tak tahu)

No 3 – Red Alert on 3 Gorges Dam still stands.

3 Gorges dam discharge is rate limited at 50,000 m3/s. That is a very worrying sign

At this stage it does not make sense for the 3 Gorges dam to limit its outflow as the weather outlook is very bad and the net inflow can put the dam in danger of over-topping within the next 7 days. We believe that there is a strong probability that the sluice gates have been damaged from cavitation which could explain why the dam is not discharging at maximum capacity at this current critical period.

This is the most recent picture of the flood situation in the 3 Gorges dam. This is based on official data released by the 3 Gorges corporation and the chart data seems to be plausible in terms of the consistency in the cause and effect.  The 3 Gorges dam is currently facing its 5th flood peak. More worrying is that the water inflow level is now at the highest compared to where it has been since the start of the flood season in early July. Literally, parts of China has witnessed more or less continuous downpour for the last 79 days.

 

 

If you observe the chart, you will notice that the Red line, which represents the discharge capacity of the 3 Gorges dam is nowhere near the maximum design limit of about 100,000 m3/s, but limited to about half that at 50,000 m3/s. At this stage it does not make sense for the 3 Gorges dam to limit its outflow as the weather outlook is very bad and the net inflow can put the dam in danger of overtopping within the next 7 days. We believe that there is a strong probability that the sluice gates have been damaged from cavitation which could explain why the dam is not discharging at maximum capacity at this current critical period.

As of 1145 am Rembau Standard Time, the water level was 162.3 m, meaning the dam has only 12.7 m left to design capacity and 23 m to overtopping. The current net inflow, meaning the difference between inflow and outflow is 25,000 m3/s. That means accumulating 25,000 tonnes ( 1 m3 of water is 1 metric tonne ) of water per second behind the dam, the actual weight is probably double that due to the debris carried by the flood water which is accumulating behind the dam. This acts as an additional force acting in the dam.

Based on our internal simulation, at net inflow of 25,000 m3/s (inflow of 75,000m3/s , discharge of 50,000 m3/s), the water level increases by 2.3 m per day. So currently at 162.2m, the height can be expected to gain to 164.6 m by the same time tomorrow. This is a conservative calculation and does not account for the effect of debris and rubbish which effectively raises the river bed and reduces the effective height of the dam. If the net inflow sustains at this level, the dam has at most 7 days remaining capacity left.

When we first raised the Red Alert on the 3 Gorges dam, we complained bitterly that it was up to the Rembau Times to raise this alert as other media organisations have refused to do so. However, that has changed and there are plenty of resources online to find out why many others think that China is in imminent danger of a collapse of the 3 Gorges dam. Our view of a Red Alert scenario first raised on July 25th remains. Only an act of Divine intervention can save China, but will the Communist Government humble themselves or rather see the country get devastated?

Updated 

We were wrong, wrong, wrong.

Here below is President Xi touring “flood affected” regions on 20th August 2020.

President Xi Jinping’s tour of affected regions on 20th Aug 2020.
President Xi “consoling” a flood victim

Seriously.

No, seriously.

This is the official images of the President of China visiting flood affected regions.

There is no problem. Everything is made up and perception. The water levels are not rising. Life is beautiful. Positive energy.

Come on.

 

By the way these are some pictures of our Yang Di-Pertuan Agong, Sultan Abdullah of Pahang encouraging the rakyat during times of national crisis.

*Yang DiPertuan Agong is the title of the King of Malaysia. 

Thankfully, we live in Malaysia.

Tengku Mahkota Pahang  wading through flood waters in Bukit Rangin Kuatan in 2013 (He was Tengku Mahkota Pahang at that time).
Sultan Abdullah visiting a flood relief centre in Kuala Lipis as Yang DiPertuan Agong
Sultan Abdullah visiting a fire disaster area in Sabah in Sep 2019 as YDPA
Sultan of Johor visiting a flood relief center

Post note: Actually not only Sultan Abdullah but the Sultan of Johore also is usually on the scene of there is a disaster in the state of Johore. In general, Malaysian Royals are quite close to the people and do share in their suffering during times of crisis.

 


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