Writer Hits Back at Merdeka Centre Findings, Reaffirms Prediciton On PH To Win 118 Seat

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“Due to popular requests from readers, the writer AW has expanded his analysis on GE14 to include the excel data simulation while hitting back at the latest survey results from Merdeka Centre”.

Based on data from the recent delineation exercise by the Election Commission, the recent voter demographics, the addition of new voters, various analytics by both mainstream and non-mainstream sources including Merdeka Centre and Invoke, the writer has designed an excel simulation to predict the outcome of Malaysia’s 14th general elections (GE14).

The first focus is on Peninsular Malaysia. The racial demographics of Peninsular Malaysia are categorized into 4 categories:

1) Malay majority seats in Kelantan and Terengganu, which consist of 22 seats. To simplify the analysis, Chinese and Indians populations are deemed negligible, hence their population is keyed in as zero.

2) Malay majority seats with an average of 90% Malay population for all states in Peninsular Malaysia (except Kelantan and Terengganu), which consist of 28 seats.

3) Malay medium majority seats (with an average of 70 to 80% Malay population), which consist of 65 seats

4) Mixed and Chinese seats which consists of 50 seats, where Malay population is 65% (as per national average) or lower. The reason mixed and Chinese seats are lumped together is because based on the simulation, PH is expected to win 99% of those seats regardless of whether the ratio has 65% Malays or less. This point may seem controversial but it’ll be explained later.

 

PENINSULAR SEATS SEATS POPULATION
    MALAY CHINESE INDIAN
MALAY MAJORITY (K’tan/T’ganu) 22 100.0% 0.0% 0.0%
MALAY MAJORITY (Other States) 28 90.0% 6.7% 3.3%
MALAY MEDIUM MAJORITY 65 80.0% 13.3% 6.7%
CHINESE/MIXED SEATS 50 65.0%

or less

25.0%

or more

10.0%

or more

 TOTAL SEATS 165      

For all Peninsular states except Kelantan and Terengganu, BN’s Malay support is predicted to drop from GE13’s 65% to 45%, in line with forecasts from several non-mainstream findings. Chinese and Indian support to remain the same as GE13.

The latest report from Merdeka Centre states that BN’s drop in Malay support in Peninsular is only 8% as of mid April 2018. However, Merdeka Centre did state that the drop in Johor is 20.9%. In reality, the author argues that the fall is more drastic. Bear in mind that survey respondents are usually cautious (especially in a BN-governed state) when answering survey in fear of reprisal from the ruling government, hence resulting in a response bias towards BN. Furthermore, the survey by Merdeka Centre is flawed because it has zero fence sitters and undecided voters, where it is highly probable that the majority of them will ultimately swing to PH. Hence the survey result is BN biased.

In spite of the result bias, Johor is estimated to fall 20.9%, Selangor 17.2% and Perak 8.9%. So we can safely add more percentage points to these figures. The writer predicts an additional 5 to 10 percentage points in line with Invoke’s data. In fact, Invoke’s latest data has BN’s Malay support languishing in the high 30s to low 40s, meaning BN has lost about 20 to 25% Malay support.

Merdeka Centre’s data on Kedah’s shows a 1.1% drop in Malay support for BN. This has to be the most controversial and outrageous take on GE14 as data from other findings point to a similar if not larger drop than that suffered in Johor. In fact, the writer posits that if anything, Kedah has the BIGGEST fall in Malay support for BN, possibly even in the 30s. PH is widely expected to smash BN in this state due to the Mahathir-Mukhriz one-two knockout punches.

PR’s Malay support in GE13 was 35% and it is assumed 15% of that belongs to PAS in all states except for Kelantan and Terengganu, which is in line with Invoke’s survey result which states PAS’ support level has dropped from 18% to 13% in the past month.

 

PENINSULAR SUPPORT LEVEL
(all states except Kelantan & Tganu)
GE14 VOTES BN PH PAS
Malay 45.0% 40.0% 15.0%
Chinese 10.0% 90.0% 0.0%
Indian 50.0% 50.0% 0.0%

 

Hence, PH will lose 15% of Malay support to PAS, but gain 20% of Malay support from BN, for a total of 40% Malay support. Merdeka Centre’s result however differs widely, stating that PAS has 27% Malay support as opposed to PH’s 20%. The writer posits that Merdeka Centre’s result is flawed as it lumps PAS’ support together for the whole of Peninsular, where in reality the result skews heavily to PAS in Kelantan and Terengganu but is almost negligible in the west coast states. Hence, the opinion here is that BN’s loss will be PH’s gain in all states bar Kelantan and Terengganu.

For Kelantan and Terengganu, BN and PAS are predicted to be evenly matched, with PH not making much of a dent. To simplify this analysis, Chinese and Indian votes are considered as negligible in this category.

 

PENINSULAR SUPPORT LEVEL
(Kelantan & Terengganu only)
GE14 SUPPORT BN PH PAS
Malay 40.0% 20.0% 40.0%

 

The mixed and Chinese seats are lumped together instead of separately because they yield the same result regardless of whether the ratio has 65% Malays or 50% Malays or lesser. To simplify this analysis, the race composition for this category is considered the same as our national ratio of 65% Malays, 25% Chinese and 10% Indians, even though in reality it differs according to areas. But it won’t influence the result as PH is expected to win 99% of these seats due to the aforesaid 20% Malay swing and the overwhelming Chinese support.

There’s no doubt that BN’s 65% Malay support in GE13 will be reduced, mainly due to resentment at caretaker Prime Minister Najib and the BN government he leads, and the addition of 1 million new Malay voters. The question is by how many percentage points the Malay swing will be.

There were about 8.7 million eligible Malay voters in GE13. The addition of 1 million new Malay voters for GE14 translates into an 11.4% increase. If 70% of new Malay voters support PH (based on non-mainstream findings), that’s already a swing of about 5%. So a total swing of 20 percentage points is not that far-fetched. In fact, it’s quite conservative as Merdeka Centre already puts the swing at 8% in spite of the afore-mentioned survey flaws, while Invoke’s one is in the mid 20s.

The results are shown below.

 

PENINSULAR SEATS SEATS VOTES  
    BN PH PAS OUTCOME
MALAY MAJORITY (K’tan/T’ganu) 22 40.0% 20.0% 40.0% BN & PAS to win equal amount of seats (11 each). PH win zero seats.
MALAY MAJORITY (Other States) 28 42.8% 43.7% 13.5% BN & PH to win equal amount of seats, PAS to win zero seats due to first pass the post system. However, to offset the result bias of this simulation as there are PAS strongholds in Kedah, PAS is opined to win 10% of seats, and this amount is deducted from PH, giving PH 12 seats, BN 14 and PAS 2.
MALAY MEDIUM MAJORITY 65 40.7% 47.3% 12.0% Although in the first pass the post system, PH win all the seats, in reality it will be different because in BN strongholds, the votes will skew more to BN than PH. Hence, the win ratio is set to 60-40 in favour of PH, giving PH 39 seats, BN 26. PAS to win zero seats.
CHINESE/MIXED SEATS 50 36.8% 53.5% 9.8% PH to win all the seats according to data. However, the reality will because BN has at least one winnable seat. Thus, BN to win 1 seat.

 

So based on a “conservative” 20% Malay swing, and assuming that the Chinese turn out in droves to vote like in GE13, this simulation shows that PH can win about 100 seats in Peninsular alone.

 

PENINSULAR SEATS SEATS SEATS
    BN PH PAS
MALAY MAJORITY (K’tan/T’ganu) 22 11 0 11
MALAY MAJORITY (Other States) 28 14 12 2
MALAY MEDIUM MAJORITY 65 26 39 0
CHINESE/MIXED SEATS 50 1 49 0
  165 52 100 13

 

With that in hand, PH only need another 12 seats from East Malaysia to form the federal government, but in all likelihood, they’ll need about 18-20 to form a stable government.

In the last election, PR won 9 seats in east Malaysia. Assuming the status quo is maintained in Sarawak with PH winning 6 seats, the remaining bulk of seats is expected to come from Sabah, especially now that is has a united opposition front and with Warisan having taken the mantle of state autonomy call.

If the current groundswell momentum in east Sabah is anything to go by, Warisan is expected to clinch it for PH. The writer predicts a total of 12 seats to be won by Warisan and PKR in Sabah, hence PH to form the Federal Government with a total of 118 seats. Pakatan Harapan to win GE14. #WIN!

Written by:

AW, Selangor

Rembau Times comment

  • This article also appeared in MalaysiaKini over here

Our call on the Election is PH to win with 2/3 majority and to take over every state in Peninsular Malaysia.

 

 

 

13 COMMENTS

  1. Unusual for a forecast not to state assumption on voter turnout. What are working with here, 85% as before?

    I think you might be underestimating BN gains in Kelantan & Sarawak and possibly Terengganu. Today they have 2 parl seats in the bag already thanks to the EC.

    I agree that Merdeka is vastly underestimating PH support in Kedah – the Mahathir factor to only produce 1% drop in Malay support for BN in the state? Contradicts all evidence from the ground. By contrast Merdeka is forecasting 9% total increase in Malay support for BN in Kelantan. I disagree. BN will probably regain the state but due to split votes not such a huge spike in BN support.

    However I fear your forecast for Kedah is a bit optimistic – PAS is still a presence there & this will split votes. Merdeka’s contention of a 21% Malay swing in Johor but BN still retaining the state is puzzling. Johor has a number of marginal seats plus PAS is not a strong presence here.

    I note your contention that Merdeka has zero undecideds. However my understanding is that they do have a material sample of undecideds/refuse to reveal but assign them to parties after further questions on affiliations. So there is still room for a PH swing from this segment but it wont be from a base of zero.

    Furthermore, Indian support is still with BN; this needs to be factored in.

    • The voter turnout is assumed at 85%, same as in GE13.

      Noted that BN might win more seats in Kelantan and Terengganu. But even if u add to BN the 13 seats that PAS is predicted to win, it still won’t affect the outcome of this analysis because the 13 seats are at the expense of PAS, and not PH. As for Sarawak, my projection is already at a low end of 6 seats for PH.

      Kedah and Johor are expected to fall to PH. I reaffirm my stance on these 2 states.

      Merdeka Centre result is highly flawed and suspiciously lop-sided.

      Indian support is 50-50.

      • I hope you’re right mate. Anyway, it’s good that you took down Merdeka’s poll which seems to be calculated to dampen PHs and the rakyat’s spirit. The last few days are critical to push for a big swing, it’s vital to keep the fighting spirit up.

    • Merdeka assumes voter turnout of 81%, lower than the last GE. I dont remember about Invoke, I expect it’s there somewhere.

  2. Optimism is a good thing. But too much of it you are giving people false hope. Malaysian like some changes, but they don’t like too much changes . And one more thing If you are so confident of your forecast, you should be brave to show your real name.

    • David,
      Nobody’s giving people any false hope here. This forecast might suffer from some PH-bias but not so much for us to discredit the findings. As mentioned by AW, assuming the Chinese vote remains in favour of PH, then these numbers do add up. Granted, despite RembauTimes’ conviction that PH will win 2/3 due to Malay Tsunami, we don’t know yet its magnitude or if it’s going to happen at all.

      The Editor might add more credibility to this forecast if he reveals himself and AW but IMO, let the data speak for themselves.

      Yours,
      ABf

  3. David you want to dare us to reveal who we are? So im sure you will be the first one to stand and support if we are the plaintif or defendant if there is a lawsuit brought against us?
    Well it wont make a difference if we reveal our name to satisfy your curiosity as we run a huge risk posting articles contrary to the Govt.
    Btw anonymity here does not exclude us from huge legal liability. Whats your sacrifice?

    • Lawsuit brought against you ? On what ground? Why do you think govt wants to throw you in jail?

      Your reply just made me have a sinking feeling that I will be proven right that Najib is the new Trump.

      • Err.. Have u heard of Bolehland and the Anti Fake news law. I have no issue abt yr end view on the election, btw most external fund managers are taking forgranted a BN victory. But dont throw challlenge on us to reveal who we are to add or subtract from the credibilty. Najib says BN will do better we say BN will lose readers can either believe the Malaysian PM or an anonymous news paper. Choice is entirely up to them.

  4. RT I agree that people run a big risk running articles or even polls which are contrary to BN. Which is why I wonder about polls like the usually dependable Merdeka Centre; some of their assumptions seem calculated not to ruffle feathers.

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