Readers View – Pakatan to win 118 seats

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Following is the view of one of the Rembau Times readers on the final GE 14 results.

Dear Rembau Times,
I’ve done an excel spreadsheet (as attached) on the racial composition in Peninsular Malaysia, broken the seats down into 4 categories, i.e. Malay majority seats except for Kelantan and Terengganu which consist of 28 seats, Malay majority seats in Kelantan and Terengganu (22 seats), Malay medium majority seats (65) and Chinese/Mixed seats (50), and the expected support for BN, PH and PAS.
For all Peninsular states except Kelantan and Terengganu, I predict BN’s Malay support will drop fr GE13’s 65% to 45%, in line with forecasts from several non-mainstream articles. PR’s Malay support in GE13 was 35% and it is assumed 15% of that belong to PAS, which is in line with Invoke’s survey. Hence, PH will lose 15% of Malay support to PAS, but gain 20% of Malay support from BN, for a total of 40% Malay support.
For Kelantan and Terengganu, I predict BN and PAS are evenly matched, with PH not making much of a dent. To simplify my analysis, I consider Chinese and Indian votes as negligible in category.
For mixed/Chinese seats, I consider the race composition the same as our national ratio of 65% Malays, 25% Chinese and 10% Indians, even though in reality it differs according to areas. But it won’t influence the result as Pakatan is expected to win 99% of those seats regardless of whether the ratio has 65% Malays or less.
There’s no doubt that BN’s 65% Malay support in GE13 will be reduced, mainly due to resentment towards caretaker Prime Minister Najib and the BN government he leads, and the addition of 1 million new Malay voters. The question is by how many percentage points will the Malay swing be. There were about 8.7 million eligible Malay voters in GE13. The addition of 1 million new Malay voters translates into an 11.4% increase. If 70% of new Malay voters support PH (based on non-mainstream findings), that’s already a swing of about 8%. So a total swing of 20 percentage points is not that far fetched. In fact, I’d say that it’s quite conservative.
So based on a “conservative” 20% Malay swing, and assuming that the Chinese turn out in droves to vote like in GE13, my simple excel simulation shows that Pakatan can win about 100 seats in Peninsular alone. With that in hand, PH only need another 12 seats fr East Msia to form the federal government, but in all likelihood, they’ll need about 18-20 to form a stable govt. My prediction is PH will form Federal Govt with 118 seats. Pakatan will win. #WIN!
AW, Selangor
My comment:
There are 3 ways we form a view
  1. Reason – this is usually after the fact. Most journalists go by ‘reason’ when trying to make sense of an unexpected outcome.
  2. Forecast – Bro AW here did a forecast and he came with 118 seats. This is based on estimates of probable turnouts and voting patterns

3rd reason – Conviction

  • For The Rembau Times we are driven by conviction when we first made the call in 2017.  If you listen to Rafizi who has probably the best current election prediction, PH is now neck to neck with BN in terms of Malay support. PAS is always 3rd place.
  • Our conviction, PH to win massively and form a 2/3 Government.
  • My conviction is that every state in Peninsular Malaysia will fall to PH and BN will suffer a catastrophic loss. 
  • The basis of which we can only reveal to the incoming Prime Minister, but it is related to one incident in February 2017 which was not dealt with properly. The incident effectively sealed BN’s fate.

Additional note

  • Warisan is rocking in Sabah, I think people are assuming that BN will just walk over in Sabah. That may not be true as Dato Seri Shafie Apdal is one fantastic campaigner.
  • I’m not worried about what the EC will or will not do. The decision is not in their hand to determine who rules the country.

5 COMMENTS

  1. Dear AW of Selangor – this is thoughtful & very interesting thank you.

    I have some observations & questions below. Sorry I dont mean to give you a hard time or anything, just trying to make statistical sense of this election as the playing field has altered much since GE13. I really hope that you are right in your conclusion.

    1. what level of voter turnout are you expecting? 85% as before despite the mid-week vote?
    2. does the racial composition of the seats in your model reflect the new gerry-mandered constituencies?

    Comments on your assumptions
    3. ex-Kelantan & Trengganu, thanks to the PAS controversies I dont think PH will lose all 15% of Malay support to PAS. 11-12% maybe
    4. Kelantan & Trengganu, I dont believe BN & PAS will be evenly matched with Amanah stealing some votes away from PAS. Worryingly for PH this just means BN will win all the 3 cornered fights; in Kelantan this amounts to an additional 9 parl seats in the bag for BN
    5. the existence of what I call ‘cheat seats’. For eg Lembah Pantai has added to its roll 7k Polis votes, presumably BN.
    6. your calculation on the 1m new voters is enlightening. It does seem to indicate that an overall Malay swing of 20% is not far-fetched. If they are under-25 first time voters, I think a higher opposition bias 75-80% is not unreasonable. However the voter turnout for the young may be well below national average due to expenses & attitude. (The recent UK elections showed a surprisingly high turnout of young voters, but there many students voted on campus; none of this additional expense of having to balik kg or fly home etc.)

    Cheers.

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