There is talk that Opposition Stalwart, Lim Kit Siang intends to ‘challenge’ UMNO veteran Tan Sri Shahrir Samad in Johor Bahru. This is perhaps the riskiest move ever contemplated by the DAP supremo and the chances of success are very slim.
This is because the DAP Style of Campaigning will not work in Johor Bahru as it did in Gelang Patah. In Gelang Patah, Kit Siang won due to the overwhelming support of the Chinese community as well as some small acts of sabotage within UMNO.
In Johor Bahru, it will be very difficult to repeat such a stunning upset. JB is a BN stronghold and to win you need to convince UMNO voters to side with you.
However, it is still possible if the DAP is willing to adapt its campaign strategy from being on ‘attack, attack, attack’ to a more ‘intelligent style of campaigning.’
To win in Johor, Kit Siang must assume he is running against Najib and not Shahrir. He is running against Shahrizat. Against Isa Samad. Against Azzeeezz. Against Tengku Adnan and soon.
A Vote for Shahrir = A Vote for Najib
This is because it is one thing for Tun Dr Mahathir and Tan Sri Muhiyiddin Yassin to hammer Dato Seri Najib. In reality, I doubt Malays would extend the same privilege to Lim Kit Siang to do so.
To win, Lim Kit Siang will need at least, 30 to 40% support from the Malays as the Chinese will not back him overwhelmingly as was done in PRU 13. This is because DAP’s fire and fury style is not suited for Johor this time round. There are altogether 40 PDUs in JB and Kit Siang needs to have a team of about 300 people to win this famous seat.
To obtain 30 to 40% support from the Malays, he needs to do the following
Campaign using Reverse Psychology
- The first thing is to recognise that BN’s strongest asset is the ‘demonisation’ of DAP. They have invested billions in doing this, it will be naïve to think that this form of investment, day and night for the past 8 years has not had an effect on the Malay psychology.
- BN’s weakest link is their leaders. Their leaders have destroyed their own reputation by their statements and arrogance. In fact if you put BN Ministers faces together on a single leaflet people may perform their own version of the “Rorschach test” and perceive them for what they truly are. Shahrir can be included as well in the art piece but the prominence must be given to his boss – Najib and must include Sharizat and Isa Samad. By the way, Najib’s face is missing in Johor Bahru, so it may be good for people to be reminded how their Prime Minister actually looks like. Can include Azlina but no other Anak Johor leaders like Ahmad Maslan.
- Dont attack Rosmah or include her pic. She is not part of the Government but ppl will make their own comnection.
- I think even BN supporters themselves hate their leaders. The only thing is that BN supporters either are “on the dedak” or they hate the DAP even more than they hate their leaders.
- To win Voters must make the connection that the cost of maintaining the BN leadership outweighs the gain. Do not attack BN, or UMNO. For all purposes UMNO is great (while its still around), but the current leadership is the one who has a lot of problems and are burdening the people.
The fear of BN Voters are that they will be lied to again for 5 more years. Capitalize on this!
This should be the starting point of LKS Campaign. Which is to stress the point subtlety but powerfully that the MP for Johor Bahru will play a part in determining the type of Federal Government.Seduce the pvoters – do not hammer the BN Government.
Just keep on mentioning that the voters deserve a better government and Pakatan Harapan is the answer. Mention that it is not fair for prices to be high because the Ringgit is low. With PH, the Ringgit will rise (eventually.)Campaign on promises, do not need to attack BN leaders because if readers flip past the pamphlet and look into the promise, then they have already made the decision that they do not trust BN leaders.
- End the pamphlet with a positive message. For example a leadership you can trust or building a better Malaysia.
- Make frequent campaign visits but restrict to just explaining the pamphlet. Adopt Syed Saddiq’s debate style in being very disciplined and always sticking to message.
- Make several different variations of the pamphlet so that you can test different market segments and use the best one. But every pamphlet must start with the same challenge to voters – “If you trust these people, then vote BN”.
- Try to get some sort of GIS and Analytics tool. Analytics helps, that’s how Obama and Trump won. You must know who the voters are, where they are, how old they are, what are their likes and dislikes. And avoid the dislikes.
Oh yes, and good luck.
Oh yes, and lastly
THIS MAN IS A BIG LIABILITY TO DAP!