In the 13th General Election, the combination of PAS poor state leadership and the Mukhriz factor led BN to retake the state after it fell to Pakatan Rakyat in 2008. BN also did very well in the Parliament seats, winning 10 out of the 15 parliament seats in the ‘Paddy Field State’.
This time round, the Rembau Times is predicting Pakatan Harapan to win Kedah outright at the state and to make a clean sweep of the Parliamentary seats.
Our bold prediction for Kedah is 15 – 0 in favour of Pakatan Harapan.
Does this sound ridiculous?
Not really when you consider what was BN’s overall majority in the Parliament seats it had won. In the 10 seats BN won, ex Langkawi, which was, Jerlun, Kubang Pasu,Padang Terap, Pendang, Jerai, Sik, Merbok, Baling and Kulim Bandar Bahru the total parliament majority was 47,836. The total number of votes cast in the 295,058 votes for BN, with versus 247,222 for Pakatan Rakyat and the overall majority was about 8.8% of total votes cast.
With the dissatisfaction among UMNO voters on GST, the angst over Government scandals, Tun’s aura, and the decision of ROS to deregister Bersatu beginning to make an impact, we can safely for GE 14, BN is entering this election on a ‘stress test case’ .
The only thing is to determine is whether it is on ‘Moderate Stress’ or ‘Worst Case scenario’. All indications are that this may be a worst case scenario as the BN candidates may not match Tun’s popularirty in the state.
BN's defense of Kedah rests on the shoulders of 2 Federal Ministers - Johari Bahrom and Det Khalid. Other key leaders are Datuk Azeez (our favourite BN MP) and Kedah MB, Dato Seri Ahmad Bashah. They are facing a formidable threat from Pribumi, which has already made some serious in-roads into traditional UMNO areas.
For the ‘moderate stress case’ this means that the immediate base assumption is a loss of 10% of the votes immediately, or 29,000 votes due to voter dissatisfaction. If you add other factors, you look at a loss of another 7%, or another 20,000 votes, leading to a total loss of 49,000 votes, which now goes immediately to Pribumi/Pakatan Harapan. Thus BN can look to poll about 246,000 votes in the 10 seats they won. And Pakatan Haparan can look to gain at least 45,000 of the votes BN is poised to lose, giving it a total of 292,222 votes before accounting for votes lost due to PAS.
Assuming that PAS spoiler votes now account for about 13% of the initial votes Pakatan Rakyat obtained in 2013, this looks like a net loss of 30,000 votes. So the net result will be BN/UMNO polling 246,000 votes, Pribumi/Pakatan Harapan with 262,222 votes and PAS with 30,000 votes.
Distribute these over 10 electoral seats and it is very difficult for BN to win any of the seats in Kedah.
Once this result is confirmed BN/UMNO is now looking at the makings of a major catastrophic defeat. That is with ‘major’ underlined and re-underlined. The reason is what is mathematically termed the ‘volatility of the majority’, which deserves some explanation.
When we look at determining the outcome of a contest based on who gets the most seats, losing 1 seat is not the same when you are the incumbent and you lose the seat to your nearest challenger. BN starts the 2018 General Election with a 55 seat advantage or 68 seats if it you add ‘ the PAS’ to the equation. To win the election, Pakatan Harapan needs to gain 28 seats which were previously won by BN and about 7 seats which were previously won by PAS, a total gain of 35 seats.
Lets us explain this a bit more.
If BN loses 28 seats, BN outright advantage drops to 27 seats. But it will not lose to ‘the PAS’ but loses it to its nearest challenger, so the total of its challenger increases by 28 seats. The net result is that the majority over its closest challenger does not drop by 28 but by a whopping 56. And that is what Tan Sri Muhiyiddin, when he was the Director of Elections for BN had wanted to tell them in Janda Baik. Small shifts can have devastating consequences and BN is now set to face an earthquake and a tsunami rolled into one.
Rembau Times is predicting that the final tally out of the 2 Northern most states will read Pakatan Harapan 16 (winning all 15 in Kedah and 1 in Perlis) and BN 2. This is a reversal of 2013 where BN won all seats in Perlis and 10 seats in Kedah, leading to a total of 13 seats. The reversal is BN loses 11 seats and Pakatan Harapan gains 11 seats, a net swing of 22 seats. 22 down, 33 to go and we have not yet accounted for the other major defeats BN will face in the key population centres in Pahang, Perak Johor, Melaka and Negeri Sembilan.